Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Exports bring Japan out of the darkness

A 6.4 percent increase in exports has dragged Japan out of its most serious recession since WW2.

It is the nation’s first quarter of economic growth for over 12 months and GDP saw an annualized rise of 3.8 percent and a 1 percent rise compared to the previous quarter.

It is the first gain in exports figures since the beginning of 2008 and the largest gain since Q2 of 2002.

The news follows encouraging signs in Europe as the two dominant economies in the financial bloc, France and Germany, reported their first positive growth in the current quarter.

Many experts thought Japan would take years to recover from a dip brought on by plummeting foreign demand for its major exports, something Japan heavily relies on for economic success and the factor that has made Japan the number two ranked economy in the world.

The cautious optimism is being mirrored in other regions.

Contraction in the United States has been the smallest for 12 months at only 1 percent annualized last quarter. A 0.1 percent contraction was Europe’s most encouraging result for a year also. China’s growth, albeit assisted by a massive stimulus package
somewhere in the region of half a trillion dollars, jumped nearly 8 percent from last year.

Although the promises of the nation’s Prime Minister, Taro Aso, that their own economy would be the first to come out of the darkness seem to have been born out, it is thought by onlookers in the know that the recent recovery won’t be enough to keep him in the job following the next general election in 2 weeks’ time.

“The Lib Dems won’t survive,” says Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management. “Aso will be feeling good at the moment though. His stimulus package plan was mocked at the time but it has worked, and his cash hand outs and the incentives for green energy have provided the economy with many short term boosts. He is to be commended.”

Not everyone has such a positive outlook. The modest export-focused growth is great news, but the yearlong contraction that translated to over a 13 percent dip in annualized GDP in the last quarter of the year was a huge blow to the nation’s prospects.

The economic and fiscal policy minister, Yoshimasa Hayashi warned that a sustained recovery was not certain. “Employment figures are still poor and our production levels are in a trough,” he said. “We will need to work very hard to keep this recovery going and must be aware of the negative risks.”