Supported by the continued boom in the construction industry and moderate increases in private consumption, the South Korean economy grew at an increased rate this quarter.
The Bank of Korea (BOK) released its Q2 data on Monday and it revealed the GDP swelled by 0.8 percent compared to 0.4 percent at the start of the year. This quarter’s performance has surpassed Bloomberg’s forecasts by 0.3 percent.
The report also showed the economy expanded 3.3 percent compared to the previous fiscal year, with private consumption up 1 percent and construction investment up nearly 3 percent.
Consumption figures were boosted by the surprise extension of temporary tax discounts brought in by the government to spur auto purchases. The on-going construction frenzy has thrived under ultra-low interest rates.
However, the BOK felt the need to slim down its GDP forecast by a small amount to 2.6 percent in response to upcoming reshuffling of management at several key indebted firms, market volatility regarding the Brexit vote and the newly formed anti-corruption law.
Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management commented on the news, “The central bank need some time to observe how their stimulus packages are filtering through the economy. This encouraging data will buy them that time. There are likely to be a few heavy factors that might drag on the economy in the near future, but at the moment we can call this an upswing.”
Director for BOK, Kim Young Tai, said several new product releases in the automotive and phone industries combined with the tax break extension gave private spending a much needed boost. He said that “the first 6 months of this year have fallen in line with central bank forecasts.”
The government and central bank announced they have set aside nearly $10 billion designed to act as a safety net should corporate restructuring and a dip in employment negatively affect the economy. The authorities are particularly wary regarding the shipbuilding industry which slumped last year.
The new anti-corruption measures, which will go live this October, might also inhibit economic growth. Yoo Il Ho, South Korean Finance Minister, said the new legislation may hurt some larger businesses and have some negative aftershocks on the wider financial landscape.
The law aims to put an end to gifts that certain citizens holding prominent positions can take. Included are journalists, teachers and politicians.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Friday, July 15, 2016
IMF says China needs “serious reforms” on debt
David Lipton, one of the International Monetary Fund’s highest ranked officials, has warned China that it needs to initiate “serious reforms” in order to address the country’s corporate debt if it wants a smooth transition from a manufacturing to a consumer based economy.
“If this problem is not tackled immediately China will be taking some extremely hazardous detours as it develops,” he said in a Chinese economic forum in Shenzhen on Sunday.
No country in the Group of 20 has amassed debt at a faster rate than China over the last quarter of a century, and this is just the last in a string of stern reprimands the IMF have given to the world’s second largest economy.
Lipton noted that China has “not come far enough” with its efforts to limit the amount of corporate debt it is taking on, with the country accumulating approximately $1.4 trillion in overly exposed loans.
A report by the IMF recently criticized China’s plan of using debt-to-equity swaps to even out the leverage ratios of the nation’s biggest companies, saying the strategy could easily blow up in their face, allowing ‘shell companies’ up to their neck in debt to keep operating, thus creating a dangerous conflict of interest for bank executives.
With estimated total debt at 230 percent of gross domestic product, Lipton described China as being “debt laden, by any country’s standards.”
Other economists agree. Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management wrote on his blog, “I think many people are realising that China has a very obvious weakness in its economy now, and it is being fuelled by extremely fast credit growth both last year and in the first quarter of 2016. The other issue is the huge rates of investment which seems to have no end.”
Lane added that “fast action” will be needed on a governmental level, and both banks and multinational companies need to get their balance sheets in order.
As part of a yearly review of China’s economy, Lipton and other IMF officials will take part in a summit with China’s top finance chiefs.
Although Lipton said the situation was urgent, he was quick to add that China is not in financial crisis.
“According to the Macquarie Capital Ltd report released earlier this month there is a major concern regarding corporate debt, however, the situation is recoverable. There is no current crisis, but work is needed sooner rather than later,” Lipton said.
“If this problem is not tackled immediately China will be taking some extremely hazardous detours as it develops,” he said in a Chinese economic forum in Shenzhen on Sunday.
No country in the Group of 20 has amassed debt at a faster rate than China over the last quarter of a century, and this is just the last in a string of stern reprimands the IMF have given to the world’s second largest economy.
Lipton noted that China has “not come far enough” with its efforts to limit the amount of corporate debt it is taking on, with the country accumulating approximately $1.4 trillion in overly exposed loans.
A report by the IMF recently criticized China’s plan of using debt-to-equity swaps to even out the leverage ratios of the nation’s biggest companies, saying the strategy could easily blow up in their face, allowing ‘shell companies’ up to their neck in debt to keep operating, thus creating a dangerous conflict of interest for bank executives.
With estimated total debt at 230 percent of gross domestic product, Lipton described China as being “debt laden, by any country’s standards.”
Other economists agree. Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management wrote on his blog, “I think many people are realising that China has a very obvious weakness in its economy now, and it is being fuelled by extremely fast credit growth both last year and in the first quarter of 2016. The other issue is the huge rates of investment which seems to have no end.”
Lane added that “fast action” will be needed on a governmental level, and both banks and multinational companies need to get their balance sheets in order.
As part of a yearly review of China’s economy, Lipton and other IMF officials will take part in a summit with China’s top finance chiefs.
Although Lipton said the situation was urgent, he was quick to add that China is not in financial crisis.
“According to the Macquarie Capital Ltd report released earlier this month there is a major concern regarding corporate debt, however, the situation is recoverable. There is no current crisis, but work is needed sooner rather than later,” Lipton said.
SNB says they are ready to implement further easing
Deputy-chairman of the Swiss National Bank Fritz Zurbruegg, who has held the job since 2012, announced last weekend the bank are ready to step in with easing in order to keep the franc in check.
“There is a strong possibility we could drop interest rates shortly or step in with other interventions,” he commented to the Swiss-German regional daily paper Basler Zeitung. He added, “As far as an actual exchange rate target is concerned, we have none.”
Early in 2016 the SNB removed an upper limit restriction on the franc against the euro and have since attempted to reign in the currency using qualitative easing techniques with negative interest rates.
Many specialists believe current data shows the Swiss franc is punching well above its weight.
Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management said the currency is “extremely overvalued”.
He added in a phone interview, “The central bank in Switzerland has not been shy regarding intervention into the currency exchange. Meddling in the forex has been their recent policy and, combined with interest rate adjustment, they are keeping the franc high versus its peers.”
Major financial investors and institutions keeping their funds at the SNB are being charged -0.70 interest rates currently.
Deputy-chairman Zurbruegg failed to elaborate on what the possible long-term fallout might be in using negative rates citing lack of experience with the tool.
“We could conceivably go even further with the rates,” he said. “Obviously we take into account the immediate effects, like cash demand and declines in savings and deposits.”
Zurbruegg also weighed on with his thoughts on the imminent Brexit vote coming up in the U.K.
He remarked that the SNB have been drawing up multiple scenarios in relation to monetary policy to try and determine the best course of action for the franc should the British public choose to leave the European Union on June 23rd.
“There is a strong possibility we could drop interest rates shortly or step in with other interventions,” he commented to the Swiss-German regional daily paper Basler Zeitung. He added, “As far as an actual exchange rate target is concerned, we have none.”
Early in 2016 the SNB removed an upper limit restriction on the franc against the euro and have since attempted to reign in the currency using qualitative easing techniques with negative interest rates.
Many specialists believe current data shows the Swiss franc is punching well above its weight.
Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management said the currency is “extremely overvalued”.
He added in a phone interview, “The central bank in Switzerland has not been shy regarding intervention into the currency exchange. Meddling in the forex has been their recent policy and, combined with interest rate adjustment, they are keeping the franc high versus its peers.”
Major financial investors and institutions keeping their funds at the SNB are being charged -0.70 interest rates currently.
Deputy-chairman Zurbruegg failed to elaborate on what the possible long-term fallout might be in using negative rates citing lack of experience with the tool.
“We could conceivably go even further with the rates,” he said. “Obviously we take into account the immediate effects, like cash demand and declines in savings and deposits.”
Zurbruegg also weighed on with his thoughts on the imminent Brexit vote coming up in the U.K.
He remarked that the SNB have been drawing up multiple scenarios in relation to monetary policy to try and determine the best course of action for the franc should the British public choose to leave the European Union on June 23rd.
Messaging app valued at over six billion on listing
Japan's Line Corp has set itself up to be the biggest IPO in the tech sector so far in 2016 as the price range set for the messaging app operator could value the company at well over six billion dollars.
The valuation reflects the Korean owned company’s solid demand and shows the firm have turned from a reasonably wise investment into a rapidly growing start-up.
The range of 2,800 to 3,300 yen is seen by many as cautious, but even that range could see Line raise over a billion dollars from the sale of up to forty million shares.
The timing for Line’s statement to the press regarding the IPO was mildly surprising considering the state of the global markets as it attempts to recover from losses and a sentiment of general uncertainty following Britain’s vote to leave the E.U. on Friday.
The company refused to delay any longer, however, as its bullish pricing yesterday defied the expected cautious outlook that many investors thought would prevail and force many firms to suspend their IPO strategies.
Investors seem enthusiastic towards the top end of the IPO range as they will feel it gives them the best opportunity to gain reliable returns at a good value in its most important marketplaces in Asia like Japan and Thailand.
Nonetheless, many local investors and fund managers were put off by the pitch saying that although it might suit this short time of uncertainty, Line would have been better off listing the company at the period when its growth was most rapid.
Line took off as a cobbled together communication tool used after the tsunami of 2011 but has grown to be the dominant messaging app of choice in the Japanese marketplace.
The situation remains though, that many in the retail sector and international speculators alike are looking to buy in to the IPO, according to certain insiders.
“I wouldn’t say it has been difficult for Line to attract investors,” said Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management who manage over a billion dollars of funds in the region. “The kinds of firm who want to improve their short-term profit strategies are jumping on this,” he added.
Line has hired a who’s who of financial brokers, including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, to handle the listing and will go public first in New York on the 14th July and then in Tokyo the day after.
The valuation reflects the Korean owned company’s solid demand and shows the firm have turned from a reasonably wise investment into a rapidly growing start-up.
The range of 2,800 to 3,300 yen is seen by many as cautious, but even that range could see Line raise over a billion dollars from the sale of up to forty million shares.
The timing for Line’s statement to the press regarding the IPO was mildly surprising considering the state of the global markets as it attempts to recover from losses and a sentiment of general uncertainty following Britain’s vote to leave the E.U. on Friday.
The company refused to delay any longer, however, as its bullish pricing yesterday defied the expected cautious outlook that many investors thought would prevail and force many firms to suspend their IPO strategies.
Investors seem enthusiastic towards the top end of the IPO range as they will feel it gives them the best opportunity to gain reliable returns at a good value in its most important marketplaces in Asia like Japan and Thailand.
Nonetheless, many local investors and fund managers were put off by the pitch saying that although it might suit this short time of uncertainty, Line would have been better off listing the company at the period when its growth was most rapid.
Line took off as a cobbled together communication tool used after the tsunami of 2011 but has grown to be the dominant messaging app of choice in the Japanese marketplace.
The situation remains though, that many in the retail sector and international speculators alike are looking to buy in to the IPO, according to certain insiders.
“I wouldn’t say it has been difficult for Line to attract investors,” said Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management who manage over a billion dollars of funds in the region. “The kinds of firm who want to improve their short-term profit strategies are jumping on this,” he added.
Line has hired a who’s who of financial brokers, including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, to handle the listing and will go public first in New York on the 14th July and then in Tokyo the day after.
Thursday, July 7, 2016
US economy outpacing Q1 forecasts
According to official data from the Commerce Department, the US economy is performing better than predicted in the first quarter of 2016.
Estimates for the nation’s GDP were around 0.8 percent annualized for the first quarter, while the actual figures were 1.2 percent.
Impressive export figures helped with the upward revision of the gross domestic product.
However, a downturn in spending for the heath sector and diminished consumer spending was reflected in a revision down for overall growth in consumer spending to 1.5 percent, its worst performance for two years.
This is the third effort by the Commerce Department to forecast Q1 GDP. Last year they also took a few revisions before settling on a confident figure.
Although the recent data is seen by most as a very positive indicator for the world’s largest economy, there is also a general air of concern that the UK’s shocking Brexit vote could send a negative ripple effect through the domestic financial landscape, slowing growth in the second quarter.
Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management commented on the reports in a phone interview, “We still expect Q2 growth this year to be up or around the 2.5 percent mark regardless of many investors bearish outlook following the British decision to leave the European Union.”
He added, “Consumers in America will, once again, be the dominant factor in the domestic economy. There have been reliable forecasts that personal consumption in the coming quarter will grow by over 3.5 percent.”
Estimates for the nation’s GDP were around 0.8 percent annualized for the first quarter, while the actual figures were 1.2 percent.
Impressive export figures helped with the upward revision of the gross domestic product.
However, a downturn in spending for the heath sector and diminished consumer spending was reflected in a revision down for overall growth in consumer spending to 1.5 percent, its worst performance for two years.
This is the third effort by the Commerce Department to forecast Q1 GDP. Last year they also took a few revisions before settling on a confident figure.
Although the recent data is seen by most as a very positive indicator for the world’s largest economy, there is also a general air of concern that the UK’s shocking Brexit vote could send a negative ripple effect through the domestic financial landscape, slowing growth in the second quarter.
Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management commented on the reports in a phone interview, “We still expect Q2 growth this year to be up or around the 2.5 percent mark regardless of many investors bearish outlook following the British decision to leave the European Union.”
He added, “Consumers in America will, once again, be the dominant factor in the domestic economy. There have been reliable forecasts that personal consumption in the coming quarter will grow by over 3.5 percent.”
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
German tech firm agree terms with Chinese giant
Chinese conglomerate Midea has eventually won over famed German tech company Kuka, who specializes in industrial automated machinery, and have agreed preliminary terms thought to be worth around four billion euros.
A condition of the deal, however, is that the Chinese giant will refrain from restructuring the corporate organization of Kuka, allowing them to stay headquartered in Germany and keeping its jobs and factories in its existing locations.
Midea have also made assurances that under no circumstances will the takeover lead to Kuka being delisted.
The first offer by Midea was made in May and was a very high profile and unpopular case with certain elements in German political circles. Some members of the German parliament have recently switched sides as favourable conditions were written into subsequent drafts of the agreement which basically mean Kuka will be able to operate somewhat independently from its new Chinese owners and will be assisted greatly with expansion into the Chinese marketplace.
The last few months have seen a plethora of approaches by Chinese buyers to German companies specializing in industrial technology, Kuka being the largest firm in the sector to make a deal.
In a press release Kuka expressed their satisfaction with the 120 euro per share offer saying it was “very fair”. Experts in the field agreed.
Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management said the German tech firm would be able to “use Midea’s vast experience to expand into new areas whilst remaining at its core a wholly German company.”
Kuka’s major shareholders face important decisions. Mechanical engineering group, Voith, are thought to be offloading their 25 percent stake although they declined to comment on recent news reports.
The other main investor in Kuka, Friedhelm Loh, commented that his lack of a “blocking minority” in shares was untenable, hinting he would soon sell his 15 percent stake.
“I’m looking at all options available,” said Loh in a newspaper interview last week.
A condition of the deal, however, is that the Chinese giant will refrain from restructuring the corporate organization of Kuka, allowing them to stay headquartered in Germany and keeping its jobs and factories in its existing locations.
Midea have also made assurances that under no circumstances will the takeover lead to Kuka being delisted.
The first offer by Midea was made in May and was a very high profile and unpopular case with certain elements in German political circles. Some members of the German parliament have recently switched sides as favourable conditions were written into subsequent drafts of the agreement which basically mean Kuka will be able to operate somewhat independently from its new Chinese owners and will be assisted greatly with expansion into the Chinese marketplace.
The last few months have seen a plethora of approaches by Chinese buyers to German companies specializing in industrial technology, Kuka being the largest firm in the sector to make a deal.
In a press release Kuka expressed their satisfaction with the 120 euro per share offer saying it was “very fair”. Experts in the field agreed.
Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management said the German tech firm would be able to “use Midea’s vast experience to expand into new areas whilst remaining at its core a wholly German company.”
Kuka’s major shareholders face important decisions. Mechanical engineering group, Voith, are thought to be offloading their 25 percent stake although they declined to comment on recent news reports.
The other main investor in Kuka, Friedhelm Loh, commented that his lack of a “blocking minority” in shares was untenable, hinting he would soon sell his 15 percent stake.
“I’m looking at all options available,” said Loh in a newspaper interview last week.
Monday, July 4, 2016
Investment group wary Tesla board has slanted power structure
Following an offer by Tesla Motors Corp for the energy services provider SolarCity, a prominent investor group sounded a warning that Elon Musk’s role as both CEO and chairman of Tesla could cause significant conflict of interest.
The South African born business magnate is also the chairman of SolarCity and the biggest shareholder, leading to calls from CtW Investment Group to add at least two independent directors to the Tesla board.
CtW referred to the issue as a “deep-rooted governance problem” and offered a five step plan as a solution which includes clearly defining, if not totally separating, Musk’s dual role in the firm.
They will also insist that a specialized committee be formed by independent and unbiased board members to look over the SolarCity deal before any major decision is reached. Also, a proposal was put forward to adjust the power structure of the board so that stockholders would have some input as to the election of directors on an annual basis.
They also want a top to bottom revision of governance rules to stop immediate family members of directors serving back to back. That particular reform is clearly aimed at Tesla board member Kimbal Musk, chief executive of Medium Inc., who is Elon Musk’s brother.
The Tesla approach for SolarCity is thought to be worth nearly three billion dollars as an all-stock offer.
CtW Executive Dieter Waizenegger wrote in an email that he and other investors have been “actively opposed to the proposed SolarCity agreement which has only underlined the faulty governance structure at Tesla.” He wrote, “We are convinced the power hierarchy at the company must be reformed in order to ensure stockholders interests are priority.”
Some observers think CtW are getting too involved and should trust the firm’s leaders. Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management said, “As far as stockholders are concerned, Tesla have laid out a convincing argument that SolarCity is the right acquisition for the company and will generate both financial and product benefits for everyone involved. They will ultimately have a vote in the process so they should look through the proposal carefully.”
Shares in Tesla dropped nearly 15 percent 24 hours after Musk, who owns around 20 percent of both companies, announced the bid.
CtW argues that too many of the SolarCity board are directly involved with Tesla at an executive level and called for special committees on both boards to review the bid.
The South African born business magnate is also the chairman of SolarCity and the biggest shareholder, leading to calls from CtW Investment Group to add at least two independent directors to the Tesla board.
CtW referred to the issue as a “deep-rooted governance problem” and offered a five step plan as a solution which includes clearly defining, if not totally separating, Musk’s dual role in the firm.
They will also insist that a specialized committee be formed by independent and unbiased board members to look over the SolarCity deal before any major decision is reached. Also, a proposal was put forward to adjust the power structure of the board so that stockholders would have some input as to the election of directors on an annual basis.
They also want a top to bottom revision of governance rules to stop immediate family members of directors serving back to back. That particular reform is clearly aimed at Tesla board member Kimbal Musk, chief executive of Medium Inc., who is Elon Musk’s brother.
The Tesla approach for SolarCity is thought to be worth nearly three billion dollars as an all-stock offer.
CtW Executive Dieter Waizenegger wrote in an email that he and other investors have been “actively opposed to the proposed SolarCity agreement which has only underlined the faulty governance structure at Tesla.” He wrote, “We are convinced the power hierarchy at the company must be reformed in order to ensure stockholders interests are priority.”
Some observers think CtW are getting too involved and should trust the firm’s leaders. Michael Lane, Global Co-Head of the Investment Management Division at Shizuoka Capital Wealth Management said, “As far as stockholders are concerned, Tesla have laid out a convincing argument that SolarCity is the right acquisition for the company and will generate both financial and product benefits for everyone involved. They will ultimately have a vote in the process so they should look through the proposal carefully.”
Shares in Tesla dropped nearly 15 percent 24 hours after Musk, who owns around 20 percent of both companies, announced the bid.
CtW argues that too many of the SolarCity board are directly involved with Tesla at an executive level and called for special committees on both boards to review the bid.
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